Independent research desk
Unofficial Berkshire Hathaway estimate
A two-column estimate of intrinsic value — investments at market plus the equity value of the wholly-owned businesses, less parent bonds. Equity marks are daily session closes, not intraday. Not affiliated with Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Not investment advice. Press M for Letters & Lessons.
Berkshire Desk — one-pager
IV $578.96 / B · Market $497.88 · −14.0% · Printed 2026-08-21
Unofficial two-column SOTP estimate · 15× pretax ops · 8× underwriting · parent bonds deducted · float not deducted · not investment advice · Seeded marks as of 2026-08-20
Unofficial estimate · BRK.B
Seeded · 2026-08-20Estimated intrinsic value per Class B share
Market · BRK.B
$497.88 −0.3%
IV · BRK.A
$868,447
Market · BRK.A
$748,600
Seeded marks. Portfolio values and IV use emergency seed prices (seed table 2026-08-20).
Market is paying roughly 9.3× pretax for the operating businesses after stripping investments and the insurance franchise. Desk default is 15.0×.
Owner metrics · per Class B
Cash / B
$167.81
I&O cash + T-bills net
Float / B
$82.92
Not deducted from IV
Book / B
$349.37
Shareholders’ equity
Look-through / B
$22.73
Annualised after-tax
IV / B
$578.96
Desk estimate
Market / B
$497.88
Live mark
Quarterly desk note
What moved · 13F period Jun 30, 2026
Filing calendar
13F filed Aug 14, 2026 · 10-Q filed Aug 10, 2026
Next window ~mid-Nov (period ending Sep 30, 2026)
QoQ share changes vs Q1 2026. Notional is live price × Δ shares — not period-end marks. I&O cash sits at $359.2B. Full change log on Equities.
Largest adds / increases
- GOOG$3.4B
- CB$2.5B
Largest cuts / exits
- AAPL−$22.7B
- BAC−$2.9B
- DVA−$726.0M
Premium in context
Today’s −14.0% is around the middle of the reconstructed history (range −20.7% to −4.0%, median −14.2%). Reconstructed quarterly series at a constant 15× / 8× policy.
IV at 10×
$507.45
IV at 12×
$536.05
IV at 15×
$578.96
Sum of the parts
Two-column identity. Hover any line for the accounting treatment.
Operating multiple
15.0×
Capitalizes $30.6B of annualized pretax earnings from BNSF, BHE and Manufacturing / Service / Retailing. Buffett’s range is 10–15× pretax.
Insurance franchise
8.0×
After-tax underwriting only. Investment income is the yield on cash and stocks already in column one — capitalizing it would double-count.
Market cap is −14.0% versus this estimate. The old model subtracted all $513B of consolidated liabilities after capitalizing after-interest earnings — that double-counted railroad/utility debt, insurance float and deferred tax.
Implied operating multiple
Market residual on non-insurance ops after stripping cash, public stocks, other investments and insurance, adding back parent bonds.
9.3×
- Residual ops value
- $285.7B
- Pretax run-rate
- $30.6B
- Desk multiple
- 15.0×
- Spread vs desk
- -5.7×
- Residual / IV
- +23.1%
The market is capitalizing the operating businesses at a lower multiple than the desk default (15.0×). That is the main source of the current discount.
Look-through earnings
Share of public-portfolio TTM net income plus after-tax ops and underwriting.
$48.7B/ year
- Public look-through
- $16.6B
- Ops after-tax
- $25.2B
- Underwriting after-tax
- $6.9B
- AXP$2.2B
- BAC$1.7B
- AAPL$1.7B
- 8058.T$1.2B
- KO$1.2B
- 8001.T$1.1B
- KHC$911.8M
- CB$753.5M
Cash deployment
Model a use of the cash pile. Buybacks retire B-equivalent shares at the live BRK.B price. Equity purchases swap cash for stocks inside column one. Illustration only — not a recommendation.
Sliders start at zero. Pick a preset or drag to see IV per B and the residual cash.
Buybacks
$0B
Public equities
$0B
Cash left
$359.2B
B shares retired
0
IV / B after
$578.96
Premium after
−14.0%
Sensitivity · earnings × multiple
Shock pretax run-rate and re-capitalize. Market $497.88.
| Earnings | 12× | 15× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|
| -20% | $501.72 −0.8% | $536.05 −7.1% | $570.38 −12.7% |
| -10% | $518.89 −4.0% | $557.51 −10.7% | $596.13 −16.5% |
| Base | $536.05 −7.1% | $578.96 −14.0% | $621.88 −19.9% |
| +10% | $553.22 −10.0% | $600.42 −17.1% | $647.62 −23.1% |
Equity portfolio
13F share counts from EDGAR · Japan stakes from ownership filings · daily session closes where available
AAPL Apple Inc. | 13F | Seed | 228M | $314.87 | −0.6% | $71.8B | 19.9% |
AXP American Express | 13F | Seed | 152M | $331.70 | −2.4% | $50.3B | 14.0% |
KO Coca-Cola Co. | 13F | Seed | 400M | $91.10 | +0.8% | $36.4B | 10.1% |
BAC Bank of America | 13F | Seed | 483M | $62.35 | −1.3% | $30.1B | 8.4% |
GOOGL Alphabet Inc. Class A | 13F | Seed | 78.8M | $340.20 | −1.3% | $26.8B | 7.4% |
CVX Chevron Corp. | 13F | Seed | 84.4M | $206.58 | +0.4% | $17.4B | 4.8% |
OXY Occidental Petroleum | 13F | Seed | 265M | $61.42 | +2.2% | $16.3B | 4.5% |
8058.T Mitsubishi Corporation 11.1% of company | Japan | Seed | 445M | ¥4,696 | −1.7% | $13.1B | 3.6% |
MCO Moody's Corp. | 13F | Seed | 24.7M | $497.86 | +0.2% | $12.3B | 3.4% |
CB Chubb Ltd. | 13F | Seed | 34.2M | $343.23 | +0.7% | $11.8B | 3.3% |
8001.T Itochu Corporation 10.2% of company | Japan | Seed | 806M | ¥2,004 | +0.2% | $10.1B | 2.8% |
8031.T Mitsui & Co. 10.8% of company | Japan | Seed | 310M | ¥4,774 | −2.0% | $9.3B | 2.6% |
GOOG Alphabet Inc. Class C | 13F | Seed | 27.2M | $337.68 | −1.2% | $9.2B | 2.5% |
KHC Kraft Heinz Co. | 13F | Seed | 326M | $25.53 | −0.6% | $8.3B | 2.3% |
8053.T Sumitomo Corporation 10.2% of company | Japan | Seed | 622M | ¥1,702 | −3.2% | $6.6B | 1.8% |
8002.T Marubeni Corporation 10.3% of company | Japan | Seed | 175M | ¥4,856 | −1.7% | $5.4B | 1.5% |
DVA DaVita Inc. | 13F | Seed | 28.9M | $176.23 | −0.6% | $5.1B | 1.4% |
DAL Delta Air Lines | 13F | Seed | 57.3M | $80.73 | −3.1% | $4.6B | 1.3% |
SIRI SiriusXM Holdings | 13F | Seed | 125M | $28.50 | −0.6% | $3.6B | 1.0% |
VRSN VeriSign Inc. | 13F | Seed | 9.0M | $277.73 | +1.7% | $2.5B | 0.7% |
KR Kroger Co. | 13F | Seed | 39.0M | $56.21 | −0.1% | $2.2B | 0.6% |
ALLY Ally Financial | 13F | Seed | 27.0M | $42.54 | −1.3% | $1.1B | 0.3% |
LEN Lennar Corp. Class A | 13F | Seed | 13.1M | $86.25 | −1.2% | $1.1B | 0.3% |
LLYVK Liberty Live Series C | 13F | Seed | 10.6M | $105.54 | −1.2% | $1.1B | 0.3% |
NYT New York Times Class A | 13F | Seed | 15.7M | $65.39 | −0.9% | $1.0B | 0.3% |
COF Capital One Financial | 13F | Seed | 3.0M | $214.55 | −2.8% | $643.6M | 0.2% |
LLYVA Liberty Live Series A | 13F | Seed | 5.0M | $102.32 | −1.1% | $510.2M | 0.1% |
NUE Nucor Corp. | 13F | Seed | 1.9M | $241.82 | −2.8% | $449.2M | 0.1% |
LPX Louisiana-Pacific | 13F | Seed | 5.7M | $74.12 | −2.5% | $419.9M | 0.1% |
M Macy's Inc. | 13F | Seed | 7.3M | $22.68 | −3.1% | $166.6M | 0.0% |
OXY ws Occidental warrants | Warrant | Seed | 83.9M | $1.80 | 0.0% | $150.9M | 0.0% |
NVR NVR Inc. | 13F | Seed | 11K | $6,331.08 | −1.4% | $70.4M | 0.0% |
LEN.B Lennar Corp. Class B | 13F | Seed | 298K | $84.83 | −1.2% | $25.3M | 0.0% |
JEF Jefferies Financial | 13F | Seed | 434K | $51.93 | −3.0% | $22.5M | 0.0% |
DHI D.R. Horton | 13F | Seed | 4K | $148.99 | −1.9% | $531K | 0.0% |
IV vs market price
Two-column intrinsic value per BRK.B at a constant 15× pretax / 8× underwriting policy, against the Class B close. History before Q2 2026 is reconstructed. Daily points are recorded in this browser once the desk is open.